last update: 20-12-2022 23:15
– Correction EDU Naval Forces. 16>12 frigates UK + 0>6 corvettes. 8>12 frigates Spain.
– Switzerland no member of the EU/EDU. Stays neutral and UN center of the world with UN headquarter.
– Changes air and naval forces.
– In 2045, NATO will no longer exist. Even though it now thinks to be alive again because of the conflict in Ukraine after the French president Macron recently called NATO brain death…now the EU seems to become brain death after taking a wrong turn. But this is an apparent phase…just like the earlier claimed NATO successes of its missions in Kosovo and Afghanistan and Iraq and Libya and Syria…and so now Ukraine. The organisation took the wrong turn by collaborating with US and UK and their sympathisers in their egocentric nationalistic project against Russia…and the EU(!!). And will, unlike the EU, not be able to come back and recover from that.
– More info in topic land forces.
– Switzerland became member of the EU/EDU.
– Russia will also become a member of the EU/EDU before 2045. Still unthinkable today. But historically important, strategically important, and above all it offers a common European future for the younger Russian generations.
– Changes in numbers of naval forces.
– Exit 2043, now snapshot 2045, 100 years after end of WO2. More symbolic for Europe as a whole.
– MCMV’s naval forces split into larger ocean and smaller coastal/inland waterways variant.
A snapshot in the year 2045..
Index –
- In General EDU 2045
- Part 1 – Short European Security Analysis 2045
- Part 2 – Strategic Vision European Union – EU 2045
- Part 3 – Strategic Vision European Defence Union – EDU
- Part 4 – EDU Nuclear Forces 2045
- Part 5 – EDU Naval Forces 2045
- Part 6 – EDU Air Forces 2045
- Part 7 – EDU Land Forces 2045
- Part 8 – EDU Cyber and Electronic Forces 2045
- Part 9 – EDU Space Forces 2045
- Part 10 – EDU Gendarmerie Forces 2045
In General EDU 2045
EDU Doctrine and Article 42.7. Primarily the EDU is defensively oriented. However the EDU is also capable of carrying out attacks in order to disrupt opponent’s aggressive intentions. This either as a deterrent or as a way to complicate the warfare of an opponent.
Article 42(7) of the Treaty on European Union is mutual defence clause of the EDU.
A political and military command structure within the EDU is created. With military HQ’s where needed and wished. Build on decades of collective experience and good practice within NATO and other alliances. Integrating some of todays NATO HQs and structures that will be no part of the reformed NATO anymore. With new global (geopolitical) realities described in this blog being integrated.
The headquarter/office of the EDU is in Strasbourg France.
There is no question of an EUropean army. The EDU more looks like NATO old style. EU Member States contribute sovereignly military personnel and material to common EDU structures and units. Nor is there any question of far-reaching task specialisation. EU Member States retain their own complete armed forces. However, there is an aim to achieve as much EDU standardisation and interoperability as possible and different EUropean countries have entered into mutual further-reaching cooperation and integrations of their armed forces.
EDU stationing and training. The EDU has a command-structure and divided Europe in regional areas of responsibility and military structures. EDU countries work together in bigger collective formations, EDU divisions and EDU Corps. Some countries get permanent (rotating) support for their land defence from countries within EDU. Main area of concern is the southern EU border. EDU task groups patrol and protect the EU territory. Focus also on common security concerns in other parts of the world where the strategic interests of the EU need to be protected. EDU operations and troops stationing possible where needed and wished by the EDU member states.
Troops from EDU member states are permanently stationed or, more often, rotating within continuing local collective EDU exercises in:
– Finland and Baltic States (Land, air, sea). Peace in Ukraine War and new improving relation with Russia culminating in envisaged EU membership of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus, makes these less and less important. Often collective exercises from EDUBGs of EDU member states.
– Southeastern borders of Russia (land, air, sea) – Focus on threat from China;
– Southern Spain (land, air, sea) – Focus on threats from (failed) states in northern Africa and piracy;
– Italy – Sicily (land, air, sea) – Focus on threats from (failed) states in northern Africa and piracy;
– Greece – Crete (land, air, sea) – Focus on threats from (failed) states in northern Africa and piracy;
– Malta (land, air, sea) – Focus on threats from (failed) states in northern Africa and piracy;
– Cyprus (land, air, sea) – Focus on threats from (failed) states in Middle East, northern Africa and piracy.
– Territories of EU member states outside Europe (land, air, sea) – Focus on local threats.
EDU defence budget : 2% GDP. No more, no less!
Why is 2% GDP defense budget needed?!
Short European Security Analysis 2045
Link to blog-article – Short European Security Analysis 2045
Strategic Vision European Union – EU 2045
Link to blog-article – Strategic Vision European Union – EU 2045
Strategic Vision European Defence Union – EDU
link to blog-article – Strategic Vision EUropean Defence Union – EDU
EDU Nuclear Forces 2045
Within this vision the EU/EDU will not directly invest in the development and production of the nuclear weapons, that stays with France, England and Russia. But the EU/EDU will contribute in their operational costs and in the needed infrastructure. The nuclear forces of England (air, sea), Russia (air, sea) and France (air, sea) are available and deliver the nuclear umbrella and deterrence. Germany, Italy, Spain, Romania and Poland (with introduction NFG/FCAS, Germany can first buy Rafale M’s for nuclear task or wait for introduction FCAS) can also launch French/English nuclear missiles from their special prepared fighter aircraft. Other EU/EDU countries can offer bases where the planes can be stationed in time of crisis. Final veto-decision
All American nuclear weapons left the EU/EDU. Within the NATO structure the nuclear forces of the U.S. are also part of the nuclear deterrence for the EU/EDU states within NATO.
EDU Naval Forces 2045
(example EDU Naval Forces 2045)
I use a number of general assumptions.. see> General assumptions Strategic Visions EDU Forces 2045
There is close cooperation with allies within a common EDU Naval Forces Staff. This umbrella staff is housed in Strasbourg France. This leads to a close form of cooperation in the field of operations, education, training, logistics and maintenance. However, all countries remain sovereign with regard to the political decision to deploy their naval forces and resources. The Commander EDU Naval Forces is the head of this staff.
EDU Naval Task Groups patrol in the seas around the EU and on defensive/show of flag missions to protect/guarding sea/shipping lanes elsewhere in the world who are of strategic interest for the EU. From Atlantic to around Africa and also in Asia. A number of commands have been established for this purpose. Such as the Atlantic, Indian Ocean, Pacific and Mediterranean Commands. Also missions under NATO or UN flag or a coalition of the willing, being sometimes the beter formula for the EU countries to operate under.
I did as example elaborate on the armed forces of one future member state, The Netherlands 2045 (in Dutch), based on some of my general assumptions.
NAVAL TASK FORCES EDU (example!)
- 6 Carrier Task Groups (2 operational at any time) of : 1 aircraft carrier, 2 destroyer/frigate air defence, 3 frigates ASW, 2 submarine SSK, 2 AOR vessels.
- 6 Amphibious Task Groups (2 operational at any time) of : 1 LHA, 2 LHDs, 2 destroyer/frigate air defence, 3 frigates ASW, 2 submarines SSK, 2 AOR vessels.
- 24 Patrol Task Groups (8 operational at any time) of : 1 destroyer/frigate air defence, 3 frigates ASW, 2 submarines SSK, 1 AOR vessel.
- 12 Ocean Mine Countermeasures Task Groups (4 operational at any time) of : 4 Ocean MCM vessels.
Mostly in different and smaller formations, part in maintenance and other part working-up.
EDU Air Forces 2045
I use a number of general assumptions.. see> General assumptions Strategic Visions EDU Forces 2045
There is close cooperation with allies within a common EDU Air Forces Staff. This umbrella staff is housed in Strasbourg France. This leads to a close form of cooperation in the field of operations, education, training, logistics and maintenance. However, all countries remain sovereign with regard to the political decision to deploy their air forces and resources. The Commander EDU Air Forces is the head of this staff.
Many countries work together in bigger collective formations. Some countries get permanent (rotating) support for their air defence from countries within EDU. EDU Air Task Groups patrol and protect the EU airspace and intercept unidentified planes and objects.
I did as example elaborate on the armed forces of one future member state, The Netherlands 2045 (in Dutch), based on some of my general assumptions.
EDU Land Forces 2045
Since it is more difficult to make estimates for the land forces of the EU Member States in 2045, I have omitted to do so here. An earlier attempt did give many insights. The Member States will adapt their land forces to the new situation and threat picture. I did as example elaborate on the armed forces of one future member state, The Netherlands 2045 (in Dutch), based on some of my general assumptions. Russia will have a substantial smaller army, in terms of personnel and material, based on the EDU and NATO 2% GDP defence budget standard. This will be compensated for by EDU structures and EDU and NATO stationing as far as the threats at her border are concerned. This also applies to Greece. Which now still spends more than 2% of GDP on its defence.
There is close cooperation with allies within a common EDU Land Forces Staff. This umbrella staff is housed in Strasbourg France. This leads to a close form of cooperation in the field of operations, education, training, logistics and maintenance. However, all countries remain sovereign with regard to the political decision to deploy their land forces and resources. The Commander EDU Land Forces is the head of this staff.
Many countries work together in bigger collective formations. EDU Land Task groups are stationed and patrol and protect the EU territory. Supplemented and reinforced in times of crisis by non-EU NATO units, personnel and material.
EDU Cyber and Electronic Forces 2045
Cyber and electronic warfare is a serious task area for the armed forces and therefore housed in its own operational EDU command.
Primarily, this command is defensively oriented. All weapon systems, but also control and ICT systems and networks that are linked to it, are protected by this command.
However, this command also becomes capable of carrying out electronic and cyber attacks in order to disrupt or flatten an opponent’s systems and the like. This either as a deterrent or as a way to complicate the warfare of an opponent. Several thousand specialists are permanently employed within this command. Main location/HQ will be in Strasbourg France.
I did as example elaborate on the armed forces of one future member state, The Netherlands 2045 (in Dutch), based on some of my general assumptions.
There is close cooperation with allies within a common EDU Cyber and Electronic Forces Staff. This leads to a close form of cooperation in the field of operations, education, training, logistics and maintenance. However, all countries remain sovereign with regard to the political decision to deploy their electronic and cyber units and resources. The Commander EDU Cyber and Electronic Forces is the head of this staff.
EDU Space Forces 2045
Space is in 2045 a serious task area for the armed forces and therefore housed in its own operational command for space operations and space warfare.
Primarily, this command is defensively oriented. All weapon systems, but also control systems and networks that are linked to it, are protected by this command.
However, this command also becomes capable of carrying out attacks in space in order to disrupt opponent’s systems. This either as a deterrent or as a way to complicate the warfare of an opponent. Several hundred specialists are permanently employed within this command. Main location/HQ will be in Strasbourg France.
There is close cooperation with allies within a common EDU Space Forces Staff. This leads to a close form of cooperation in the field of operations, education, training, logistics and maintenance. However, all countries remain sovereign with regard to the political decision to deploy their space units and resources. The Commander EDU Space Forces is the head of this staff.
I did as example elaborate on the armed forces of one future member state, The Netherlands 2045 (in Dutch), based on some of my general assumptions.
EDU Gendarmerie Force 2045
The field of para military gendarmerie is a serious task area for the armed forces and therefore housed in its own operational EDU command for Gendarmerie operations.
There is close cooperation with allies within a common EDU Gendarmerie Forces Staff. This umbrella staff is housed in Strasbourg France. This leads to a close form of cooperation in the field of operations, education, training, logistics and maintenance. However, all countries remain sovereign with regard to the political decision to deploy their gendarmerie units and resources. The Commander EDU Gendarmerie Forces is the head of this staff.
I did as example elaborate on the armed forces of one future member state, The Netherlands 2045 (in Dutch), based on some of my general assumptions.
RONALD J.H. ELZENGA 