Updated 07-09-2022
The possible most important developments and risks for the EU in Europe and the rest of the world up to 2045:
- I had not anticipated the enormous impact of something like the coronavirus in the analysis. But it can have a major influence on the developments already mentioned here. With all the negative consequences that entails.
- I had previously thought that the likelihood of a large-scale armed conflict on the European continent was low. I did consider small-scale hot conflicts, such as was happening in Eastern Ukraine, or the cold wars between Greece and Turkey and between Georgia and Russia, to be possible. Although more cooperation within the EU/EDU and NATO will reduce the likelihood of escalation and increase the chance of solutions. Including and not excluding Russia and Turkey in the policy of the European Union may increase the chances of solutions.I did not want to acknowledge yet that the American and British nationalism of ‘our liberators’ was so vicious and malicious that just after the corona crisis was dampened and ‘block to their leg’ German Chancellor Merkel had left after 16 years, they would accelerate their anti-Russia&EU project since the 1990s by deliberately provoke Russia over its highly strategic red line in Ukraine. And that NATO would fully collaborate and the EU would go along with this…again…after disastrous previous nationalistic projects of the US and UK and their sympathisers in Afghanistan and Iraq. It turned out to be possible and it happened and a nasty proxy war broke out in Ukraine after the Russian attack with…again…disastrous consequences for country, region and world.
Although it looks gloomy now and not NATO but the EU becoming brain death is becoming reality now, I keep hoping and also expecting for a radical change within the EU public, media and political opinion in the foreseeable future by the realisation of what is really happened and happening here. Then a peace solution for the conflict in Ukraine will be found. With the main goal of a revival of the European Dream to a larger more autonomous EU with also the reformed(!!) Ukraine, Belarus and Russia as future members before the year 2045. When we celebrate and commemorate the end 100 years ago of the horrific Second World War. With also as a consequence the end of NATO as we know it (contrary to my vision here before) and the arrival of new forms of cooperation next to a again more important UN.
- The presence of, and the chance of, conflicts elsewhere in the world, on the other hand, is considerable and is increasing towards 2045. This concerns both conflicts in the low and in the highest spectrum of violence. Both inter-state but more often conflicts within (failed) states. Which can influence developments in a region and indirectly/directly also in Europe.One of the main concerns for Europe is the Middle East and North Africa. Protests of the growing, mostly young and demanding populations against their totalitarian regimes and the growing violence of radical resistent groups against them can implode the region, country by country. Like today in Libya and Syria. Also the very unpopular solution for the Israeli-Palestinian conflict fuels these protests and feelings of (Arabic/Islamic) humiliation. Being aware of the enormous amount of weapons stored in these countries and the relative weapon and war experienced populations makes that a ticking time bomb south east of the EU. With also a big impact on the rest of already unstable and underdeveloped Africa and the Asian region.
- The emergence of new power blocks in the world such as China and India (and to a lesser extent Brazil and Nigeria) entail new security risks in addition to possibilities. Certainly if these countries extend their reach far beyond their own regions. Where India continues to develop as a democracy, and thus remains an important ally for the EU, the communist 1-party dictatorship in China is maintained. Even after opening of the economy during a period of economic globalisation. Staying in power will be the main goal for the regime. Chinese nationalism is also fanned for the benefit of the regime. This makes its policy less predictable and erratic.>
- >This can cause a growing threat towards important democratic allies of the EU in Asia and other regions where China looks for more influence. Or looks for (new) natural sources for it’s growing energy needs (Russia’s Siberia?!). As well as impacting the important strategic shipping routes in Asia and other parts of the world. In addition to that the Chinese system and ideology is very contrary to the core values of the EU’s political system and ideology. Growing importance of our own credibility makes it less normal to ignore this. This all is likely to grow into a new major cold war between China (and it’s allies) and western democratic countries (and their allies). In which the US and EU do not always have the same strategic interests or pursue the same way of (re)acting.
- The growing dependence on and use of world wide web, digital technologies, mobile communication, Internet of Things, networks, satellites and upcoming artificial intelligence in our daily lives and work enrich but also make us more dependent on them. And so their (deliberate) disruption a growing security threat. Enough time, money, technology and people needed to protect, deter and when needed retaliate against these threats.
- Due to the economic inequality in the world, the growing effects of climate change, a still growing world population, the emergence of new power blocks as well as increasing demand for raw materials, food, drinking water and strategic minerals, securing and guarding these strategic resources will become increasingly important for the EU. As well as the transport routes to and from it. Not only in the vicinity of Europe but also elsewhere in the world, such as Asia and the new routes in the Arctic.
- The threat of terrorist activities and deadly terror attacks remains and will even grow towards 2045. Both globally and within the EU. Feeding grounds for radicalism stay for the moment or being created by conflicts, their solutions and the growing impact of climate change. Both trying to take away these feeding grounds and creating effective security measures and structures are needed in the long run.
- Humanitarian disasters continue to occur regularly in the world. Climate Change will have a growing impact on these developments. Globale awareness and social media create less room to ignore them. They require direct or indirect support and deployment of EU resources and also a growing humanitarian role for the EU/EDU armed forces.
RONALD JH ELZENGA 